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全文字数：1537字
阅读时间：15分钟
上期翻译答案
Typically, therapistsassociateburnout with work, although researchers are also studying parental burnout, when caregivers feel chronically exhausted.
通常情况下，治疗师会将倦怠与工作联系起来，不过研究人员也在研究另一种情境——父母倦怠，即看护者的长期疲惫。
1.chronic: a chronic problem is one that continues for a long time and cannot easily be solved
《本期内容》
双语阅读
In a speech to the Vatican in January, Pope Francis made an observation fit for an economist. He argued that decliningfertilityrates might lead to a “demographic winter”. In every European country the total fertility rate, the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, has now fallen below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. The same is true in many developing countries, including China and (as of this year) India. This, the pope warned, wouldweigh onthe world’s economic health.
今年1月，教皇方济各在梵蒂冈的演讲中发表了一个观点，俨如一名经济学家。他说，生育率下降可能会导致“人口寒冬”。现在每个欧洲国家的总生育率（一名妇女一生中预期生育孩子的数量）均已跌破2.1——这个数字是在不需要外来移民的情况下使人口持平的最低水平。许多发展中国家也一样，包括中国和（从今年开始的）印度。教皇警告称，这将拖累世界经济的健康发展。
Economists have long considered such a slowdown inevitable. In the best-known model of fertility, popularised by Gary Becker, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, and others in the 1960s, there is a central role for the trade-off between the “quantity and quality” of children. As countries grow richer and the returns to education rise, it is expected that families will invest more in a smaller number of children. And as women’s working options expand, the opportunity cost of their time will grow, making the trade-off between family and career more difficult.
经济学家早就认为这种下滑无可避免。在诺贝尔经济学奖得主加里·贝克尔等人于1960年代提出的广为人知的生育模型中，人们对生育孩子的“数量和质量”的权衡发挥着关键作用。随着国家变得更富裕，教育的回报上升，可以想见家庭会少生孩子，但为他们投入更多资源。而随着女性就业的选择越来越多，她们的时间的机会成本会增加，令她们更难平衡家庭和事业。
Fitting this theory, many places have already gone through a “demographic transition”, in which poor, high-fertility countries become rich, low-fertility ones. In some, the transition has been so dramatic that their populations have started to decline. The number of people in Japan has fallen by about 3m since peaking at 128m in 2008.
根据这一理论，许多地方已经经历了“人口转变”，贫穷的高生育率国家变成富裕的低生育率国家。在一些国家，急剧的转变让他们的人口开始出现下降。日本人口自2008年达到1.28 亿的峰值以来，现在已经减少了约 300 万。
Yet an emerging body of research suggests that fertility may go through another shift at a later stage of development. A recent review of the literature by Matthias Doepke of Northwestern University and co-authors makes the case that, in rich countries, fertility may rise, or at least fall at a slower rate, if norms, policies and the market for child care make it easier for a woman to have children and a career.
然而，一大批新兴研究表明，在接下来的发展阶段，生育能力可能会经历另一次转变。翻译划线句，长按文末小程序码打卡，答案下期公布~
One way to see if this is true is to compare fertility rates across countries with differing incomes and female labour-force participation. In 1980 countries in the OECD with higher female participation rates had lower rates of fertility. By 2000 that relationship hadflipped: countries with higher rates of female labour-force participation had higher rates of fertility. Since then, the picture hasmuddiedslightly. By 2019 the new relationship had weakened a little, and it looks less sturdy when considering GDP per person rather than labour-force participation.
判断该结论是否属实的方法在于比较不同收入水平和女性劳动力参与度的国家的生育率水平。1980 年，女性劳动力参与率较高的经合组织国家的生育率较低。到2000年，这种关系发生了逆转：女性劳动力参与率较高的国家的生育率较高。自那之后，二者的关系就变得有些模糊了。到2019年，之前的新关系有所减弱，如果考虑人均GDP而不是劳动力参与率，这种关系看起来不那么牢固。
本文节选自：The Economist（经济学人）
发布时间：2022.09.19
作者：Free exchange
原文标题：Richer societies mean fewer babies. Right?
词汇积累
1. fertility
/fɚ’tɪləti/
n. 肥沃，富饶; 可繁殖性，生育能力; (思想的)丰富，多产
2.flip
/flɪp/
v. (使)快速翻转，迅速翻动; 快速翻阅，(快速地)调频道，换台; 轻掷; 按(开关); (话题、活动或意见)突然改变，突然转换;
n. 轻抛，轻掷，轻击; 空翻; 浏览，草草翻阅
adj. 轻率的，无礼的
3. muddy
/ˈmʌdɪ/
adj. 泥泞的，多泥的; 含泥的，浑浊的; 灰暗的，暗淡的; 模糊的，不清晰的; (声音，尤指乐声)重浊的; 像泥土般的
v. 使变得泥泞，使浑浊; 使模糊，使混乱; 使(颜色)变暗
词组搭配
1.weigh on 重压于；使苦恼
写作句总结
Economists have long considered such a slowdown inevitable.
结构: … have long considered such a … inevitable.
…早就认为…无可避免
例句: Politicians have long considered such a surge inevitable.
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